{"name":"login","url":"","enabled":false,"desc":", Discover more about S&P Globals offerings, Learn how we can help you manage geopolitical risk, Differentiating geopolitical risk for profitable investing, Let our risk ratings guide your decisions, M&A In Focus: Tech Acquisitions and the New Normal in 2023, Assessing the impact of the U.S. Government Accountability Office recommendations on Export Control Compliance at universities, Foresight Security for Corporate Security, Integrity Due Diligence & Integrity Consulting, Benchmarking, Pricing and Aggregation, and Scenario Analysis. Companies should also be vigilant about risks presented by suppliers. Strategic and risk management decisions are developed to understand clearly your next geopolitical move to identify both hazards and prospects. iStrategic LLC is a Political Risk Analysis and Consulting firm specializing in the Middle East and North Africa region. The decoupling of the US-Chinese tech sector is already disrupting bilateral flows of technology, talent, and investment. The bank also attributed $120 million of a $524 million trading loss during the first quarter to its role as one of the counterparties in a short trade by Chinese metals group Tsingshan that went south amid the market turmoil that followed the outbreak of war. Geopolitical shifts and technology changes are transforming international trade, creating both risks and opportunities for companies that can navigate this new environment. Integrated solutions - consulting, risk management and broking - to help organizations prevent and protect against interlinked geopolitical risks. Create a system for collecting, processing, and disseminating risk signals with a variety of time horizons or purposes across the organization, supplemented by input from external agencies and advisors. As political frictions inside and among regions heat up, the likelihood increases that they will affect a global enterprises operations, performance, or people. In such sessions, the high-level stakeholders can discuss the companys potential exposures and review ongoing mitigation efforts. Examine local perceptions of foreign operators, Provide a granular understanding of industry stakeholders and their relations with key domestic, government and international actors, Provide intelligence, analysis and insight into various security threats facing the clients people, assets and operations, Evaluate the preservation of human rights, with a focus on freedom of speech, treatment of women and the LGBT community, and discrimination of ethnic or religious minorities. Andrew Cuomo, Governor (NY) Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Prudent geopolitical risk management also requires understanding how to deal with issues that cross borders. Stress in global financial markets is significant. Whats their secret? The Chertoff Group leverages this broad and deep expertise . & account inquiries, For CA: Do not sell my personal information. Sorry, something went wrong. One test could explore the conditions in which the company may be compelled to ring-fence its IT infrastructure (to protect against cyberattacks or comply with regulatory requirements) or split off its business in a particular region. 3 Build a geopolitical risk management center of expertise or a network that unites employees across the organization to share expertise and best practices and to ensure collaboration. Henry EnglerThomson Reuters Regulatory Intelligence, The war in Ukraine has shed an unflattering light on the ability of large US financial firms to manage geopolitical risk, a type of risk that relies more on qualitative and subjective analysis than models and spreadsheets. Eurasia Group 2023. The most successful opportunists carefully monitor any situation that may, at first glance, appear to be a threat. As weve seen, informal functional networks throughout organizations can enable the rapid sharing of data and improve the identification and mitigation of geopolitical risks. . Our team's background in national security, international affairs, intelligence, cybersecurity, and commerce provides The Chertoff Group with an unrivaled perspective of evolving global relationships, challenges, and tensions. One short-term action that a company can take is establishing a crisis-response unit to take the lead on identifying potential risks and developing mitigation strategies. Our policy and political risk consulting team helps business leaders to anticipate, analyze and navigate the challenges arising from political developments. Regulatory Burdens Some may, for commercial and strategic reasons, choose to strengthen ties to the countries where the companies are based. It could also apply the system to the entities with which it does business, separating those with which a local office can work without needing additional approval from those that need risk approval and those with which an office should never work with. In extreme cases, a disruptive event can jeopardize an entire business. Shipping will increasingly be drawn into geopolitical disputes," says Kinsey. Taking a bionic approach to digital transformation can lead to successful business outcomes. "speed": 600, ByClint Follette,Marc Gilbert,Ilshat Haris,Michael McAdoo, andPattabi Seshadri. }, Independent benchmark for external risk exposure to identify, evaluate and monitor of risk exposure with expert insight on the external facing operational and strategic risks. To ingrain the importance of external relations throughout their organizations, some companies rotate high performers and potential candidates for upper management into country leadership positions, where risk management becomes one of their duties. firms, Access global tax, legal, Building a more holistic and entrepreneurial approach requires action in all three dimensions: enhancing the strategic role of risk management, ingraining it into the organization, and developing robust processes. Every organization we studied relies on input and expertise from the field. . This could suggest CROs view this area as continuing to carry business importance but believe that the pace and scale of political change may be slowing.. Related Expertise: Through our geopolitical risk team we bring together stakeholders across your organisation that own geopolitical risk exposures; helping diverse teams collectively get to grips with the changing world, understand gaps and duplication in protection, mitigate risks and identify opportunities. Political risk monitoring. 4. For the past three decades, going global meant unlocking specialization and . Casper Wuite, 55 East 52nd Street 17 Fl . Many companies, both financial and non-financial, were caught off guard, despite Putin having telegraphed his intentions for months in advance. Advanced Country Analysis & Forecasting In the aftermath of the US presidential election, CFOs appeared very optimisticwith that quarter's survey registering the sharpest uptick in sentiment in its seven-year history. Independent data and analysis for opportunity sizing, local partner selection, government stakeholder assessment and risk assessment. Another short-term action is to invest in strategy, PR, and government-relations teams that can serve as the companys points of contact with senior government officials and key stakeholders in multiple jurisdictions. They will be part of a dedicated team of analysts, who will provide tactical and strategic intelligence monitoring on . In a world where nationalistic sentiments are on the rise, no country dominates, and regulations and standards are fragmenting, such situations are bound to accelerate. In the face of fragmentation and uncertainty, many business leaders are responding by intensifying their focus on resilience. They may have to balance, given the risks, near- and long-term market priorities. Compacts provide strategic guidance for engaging within a country. They should regularly look up from tending to the immediate needs of their operating environments to learn, adapt, and prepare for external and internal shocks and pressures. Any copying or distribution of Eurasia Group materials is prohibited. Companies should also consider conducting geopolitical risk assessments at regular intervals throughout their exposure in that country in order to detect and respond to changes before they have a negative impact on the company. A holistic view uses four lenses: global geopolitical trends and scenarios, ongoing operations, investment decision making, and frequent monitoring of evolving events and development that can affect the business. . BCG was the pioneer in business strategy when it was founded in 1963. 1. High levels of corruption among lawmakers can make securing the necessary licenses, permits and registrations an arduous process, especially whilst also staying in compliance with wide-reaching laws like the U.S. FCPA. Marcin Grajewski, The EU strategic autonomy debate: What think tanks are thinking, European Parliament Think Tank, March 30, 2021, europarl.europa.eu. Successful geopolitical risk managers tend to hire a cadre of personnel with experience in doing business in the market and dealing with local agencies. Get the latest news and intelligence on global issues impacting business, politics, economics, military, security and energy. In addition to their normal duties, country chairs are responsible for liaising with all external stakeholdersincluding national and local governments, community organizations, and other enterprises. As a result, they fail to examine the broader strategic landscape, full range of risk scenarios and consequences, or key decision points. 5-minute read. Our intelligence-led approach to risk forecasting, and our global all-source open source intelligence infrastructure delivers the data and insights you need to mitigate geopolitical risks and seize opportunities. Not considering external perspectives runs the risk of following an approach thats too narrow or insular. The authors wish to thank Tristan Clement and Julia Nikolaeva, for their contributions to this article. Reuters, The EY survey last year on bank risk management, Monitoring for Reg BI poses bigger challenge as US regulators get serious, Weighing the various approaches to Scope 3 data strategies, 10 Global compliance concerns for 2023: ESG, money-laundering, and regulatory concerns weigh on compliance officers, From values signaling to implementation: Steps for corporate tax leaders to prepare for ESG, Thomson Reuters Institute launches Technology and Innovation Resource Center, Small law firms finding success & challenges in uncertain economy, says new report, Innovation Geopolitical risk, however, is unlike credit, liquidity, or counterparty default risk. We have developed an analytical tool for assessing an organizations geopolitical risk management practices and opportunity. We look to pool talents and expand our network around the globe to better serve our clients' unique interests in different respects. Major geopolitical events can often arise quickly and unpredictably. For that reason, a company may need to issue guidance on a range of other topics, such as the appropriate way to discuss geopolitically sensitive topics in publications or speeches and how to depict contested borders on maps. The organization saw a troubling trend in a number of key markets that could potentially threaten its growing cloud-storage business: mounting anxiety on the part of policymakers and customers, who were worried that local governments could access confidential data kept on servers in certain countries. As a management consultant, Dr. Smith has worked for PA Consulting Group . Access daily analysis of world events, detailed country reports, proprietary country and sovereign risk ratings, and comprehensive economic forecasts and historical data to assess your companys investments and future growth, Foresight Security for Corporate Security American Express. Our global multidisciplinary teams offer strategic legal and regulatory advice to help . Stakeholder and Influence Mapping Minimize risk, optimize strategy, and seize opportunity with Luminae Group Subscribe to our mailing list to receive expert geopolitical intelligence, unparalleled insight, and an insider perspective on global affairs. Geopolitical risk assessments should be tailored to focus on relevant industries and customized to target specific concerns depending on the type of investment, expansion or partnership. "Geopolitical risks affecting banks or banks' customers have expanded significantly in recent years," according to a global survey report issued late last year from consulting firm EY. Many governments have introduced laws requiring companies to take actions to mitigate the risk of adverse human rights impacts. Understand counterparty risk with forward-looking analysis of reputational, legal and political risks associated with new or existing partners, Risk Quantification The negative effects of climate change and progressively severe and frequent extreme weather events are becoming harder to ignore. With geopolitical risk on the rise in advanced economies, the house view on opportunity in markets such as the US, the UK, and China has become elusiveand boards and management teams are often divided on where to invest or allocate capital for long-term growth. They view disruption strategically, as a source of opportunity; embed risk management practices across the organization; and use advanced geopolitical-risk-monitoring tools and processes. We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. Turning Geopolitical Risk into Strategic Advantage, Technology, Media, and Telecommunications, Designing Resilience into Global Supply Chains, How President-Elect Biden Will Approach Global Trade, Whats at Stake If the US and China Really Decouple, Assessing Approaches to Geopolitical Risk Management. CFOs' assessments of the economy in Q3. 2023 Geopolitical Outlook . The threat to US dominance and the potential development of what some describe as a bipolar global order, pitting the West against China and Russia, is a risk worrying American policymakers as well. After consulting with top business leaders and legal, public-policy, and risk professionals at Fortune 500 companies in multiple industries, we suggest that company leaders can use a five-pronged approach to managing geopolitical risk. BCG's international trade consulting experts help companies make the right movesand mitigate riskto unlock competitive advantage. New market entry Deglobalization is poised to accelerate amid knock-on effects of Russias increased isolation from the global economy, ongoing sanctions and export controls, and the accompanying emphasis on self-reliance and the diversifying supply chains.. Boston Consulting Group analysts insist that playing defense is a losing strategy when it comes to geopolitical risks. As one of the country's top political consulting firms, Global Strategy Group has worked with many diverse and high-profile clients to serve a range of unique needs. Geopolitical Intelligence Group (GIG) is a leading provider of intelligence services, offering strategic and operational insights into the complex geopolitical environment that affects businesses. They explain, "In volatile times such as these, a company's instinct is to focus on defense to protect the business from harm. In the next two decades, competition for global influence is likely to reach its highest level since the Cold War. Comprehensive spectrum of risk-based screening and due diligence solutions. In-depth analysis, they recognize, does not come solely from algorithms. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence (if different), and our use of cookies as described in our Cookie Policy. Accurately forecast, quantify, and compare the financial viability of new investments and existing business activities by sector and project type, Bespoke Risk Scoring Krolls assessment analyzed the safety of the clients employees, evaluated local infrastructure and provided regional political and economic outlooks. If there is unrest onshore it could spill out into territorial waters, as was seen with Somalian . Some of these political consulting clients include: Airbnb. Sometimes, the payoff is simply that the company can continue doing business as usual. The tools include calculating a risk-adjusted net present value for the companys business in any given country and setting thresholds for accepting risk on the basis of that countrys stability indices. MAX's Geopolitical Intelligence Services knows your part of the world because we're part of it too. Companies also have been attempting to measure the impact of their lobbying efforts on governments, such as by benchmarking the success of their advocacy compared with that of their industry peers or estimating potential cost savings. Such a unit could, for example, analyze political events that threaten to disrupt the companys operations materially or prepare responses to government inquiries into sensitive topics. Internationally it poses increasing management challenges, particularly at board level. Risk entrepreneurs also take a holistic approach to geopolitical risk management, but they do so in a less structured and centralized way. An escalation of geopolitical events can lead to outright wars . Whether the billions of dollars in losses linked to Russias invasion of Ukraine and subsequent Western sanctions have prompted big banks to increase their geopolitical expertise remains unclear. FS firms need to be agile and resilient to thrive. Leaders can cultivate cohesiveness by bringing key stakeholders to the table to share views on a given engagement or project. The companies with the most disciplined approach, however, often use a combination of processes and tools to look at risks during different time frames and with different rates of periodic review. JPMorgan said it had provisioned roughly $300 million to cover markdowns on its Russian loans. For decades, companies built their . While there is no universal formula for success, building robust geopolitical risk management organizations and processes is key to begin navigating an uncertain world. "Heightened political risk globally raises the threshold for unrest, with implications for shipping, such as the ability to secure crews and access ports safely. Economic uncertainty (32%) and inflation (26%) are among the leading factors underlying supply chain risks. Instead, they depend on personnel from government relations, strategy, and other business functions to identify and mitigate risks, with one function coordinating and consolidating input. Yet, companies find Geopolitical Risk difficult to fully understand and even more challenging to manage. Below are several examples in which Kroll was able to help clients anticipate the type, probability and impact of geopolitical volatility on its operations in key emerging markets. Part of managing geopolitical risk is considering the ramifications of a companys core narrative. Providing a regular forum for a board to examine pressure points and operating realities from multiple perspectives and air diverging views doesnt just improve decision making and establish an appetite for riskit helps create consensus across leadership on the issues. Coco Feng, Chinese president Xi Jinping seeks to rally countrys scientists for unprecedented contest,. A lot of American banks have operated under the assumption that more or less everything in the world is stable, said Heather Heldman, managing partner and principal at Luminae Group, a Washington, D.C.-based geopolitical risk consulting firm. In 2020, it will move beyond strategic tech . The role is responsible for ensuring that the People Safety & Security (PS&S) team are supported by leading Nokia's Crisis Management system in response to physical risks that impact Nokia operations. Site by Odgis+Co and ICVM Group. | Eurasia Group is the world's leading global political risk research and consulting firm. Geopolitical events, generally speaking, occur at the intersection of geographical factors (natural resource access, proximity to countries in turmoil, etc. With tectonic shifts in geopolitics rumbling from Chinas reemergence on the global stage, a climate crisis, and the Fourth Industrial Revolution, companies must be on guard. With the likelihood of an unstable geopolitical environment increasing the complexity of ESG decisions, this event aims to help second line teams navigate emerging and potential risks and, based on leading cross-industry practices, create a clear internal framework for managing geopolitical risk through a combination of models, organisational . We hosted our 6th annual Top 10 Geopolitical Risks event today with KPMG global alliance partner, Eurasia Group, and we highlighted the relevance of the risks Exploring government strategy. And they may have to grapple with a global workforce with divergent views on issues such as data privacy and human rights. Economic and Geopolitical scenarios Banks are used to quantifying risks that can be measured, with long, historical data series serving as inputs to create future scenarios. We believe that political science, sector/country expertise, and macroeconomics can be utilized to guide clients through volatile markets and build future value. SVA. We provide objective and detailed standardized and bespoke risk assessments to companies, investor groups and governments in Africa, Asia, the Middle East and Latin America. BCG X disrupts the present and creates the future by building bold new tech products, services, and businesses. Many company boards already deliberate geopolitical risks to one degree or another. Eurasia Group's advisory and consulting business is built upon a research platform of leading political risk analysts and management consultants with deep country and sector expertise. We help companies anticipate and quantify critical external strategic business risks that might adversely impact their investments, personnel, interests, and assets anywhere in the world. Cyber risks are believed to have the deepest impact on supply chains rated by 34% as a high impact and 54% as medium. Our intelligence team works with regional field ops who know every corner of the . Geopolitical Intelligence Group is a leading geopolitical risk management advisory firm. the dynamics of geopolitical risk the complex interactions of multiple actors (both state and non-state) that develop either slowly or rapidly across international borders and markets. Tailored, high-impact executive workshops, Speaking engagements and macro strategy conversations. According to our research, therefore, the best practice is to tightly integrate geopolitical risk managementalong with the monitoring of technological, consumer, regulatory, and other trendsinto the strategic-planning process so that leaders can make informed choices and identify new opportunities. Depending on the circumstance, a companys leaders may have to weigh the effect that political or media scrutiny on the companys operations in one area has on its holdings in other locales. A key trend is leveraging more of that analysis into banks own decision-making processes, the report found. And differences can dissolve into disagreements about risk and We support each client's unique risk profile . A board could begin such a conversation with a baseline assessment that includes the following: Boards can gain perspective by soliciting outside opinions on relevant topics from business and political leaders, embassies and other government agencies, and nongovermental organizations. 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